From: Zachary Shore
To: Foreign Policy Analysts
Subject: Primer on Strategic Empathy and US Foreign Policy
Date: July 31, 2026
Problem: America often misreads its enemies. From Vladimir Putin to Iranian rulers, from Taliban mullahs to Iraqi insurgents, US leaders have struggled to understand what motivates their opponents. The result has been squandered treasure and needless death.
Distinguish Scorpions from Lions.
Two Aesop’s fables help clarify the problem.
· When a frog lets a scorpion hitch a ride across a river on his back, the scorpion stings the frog and both start to drown. When the frog asks why he did it, the scorpion says he couldn’t help himself; it’s just his nature.
· In contrast, when Androcles meets a roaring lion, he discovers a thorn in its paw, which he removes. Later, when Androcles is to be devoured by a lion in the Roman circus, the lion remembers Androcles and peacefully lies down.
Lesson: Some enemies are aggressive by nature. Others are aggressive by conditions. Changing conditions can change behavior.
US leaders must learn to distinguish scorpions from lions. But how?
One Solution: Enhance strategic empathy.
Strategic empathy is the ability to discern someone’s underlying drivers and constraints.
· If intentions are what an enemy wants to do, drivers are why they want to do it.
· If capabilities are what an enemy could do, underlying constraints are what holds them back.
How do we enhance strategic empathy?
Apply pattern-break analysis.
Key Concept from A Sense of the Enemy:
Strategic empaths read their enemies best not by studying their enemy’s pattern of past behavior, but by scrutinizing their behavior at pattern breaks.
Pattern-breaking moments are exogenous shocks to which leaders must respond. They are the dramatic, unexpected events when normal routines are upturned. They can include a popular uprising, a sudden stock market crash, a nuclear disaster, and more.
A Sense of the Enemy shows how strategic empaths read their enemies right.
When we understand our enemies better, we increase the chances for peace.
